Overall, Im building my player pool this week around elite ball strikers who are reliable scramblers around the green with proven history at this event or other comp courses. managing editor: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) This is inching toward a community bet, and golf betting isnt that easy. Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. After a disappointing finish at the Memorial earlier this month, Conners has a great opportunity to make up for missing the cut at last years U.S. Open. I expect Im to miss the cut this week, which would likely be in his best interest anyway to get a couple days off before the Players Championship next week. Five 2022 PGA Championship Longshots and Darkhorses We Love To win your PGA Championship pool, you need to find the longshots and darkhorses with longer odds at Southern Hills, so here are some sleepers in the field. Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. He has the ball-striking to put together a strong showing at Bay Hill, and while the putter is still hit-or-miss, its not nearly as bad as it used to be. So, we set out to create a place that matched the Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. There are many types of long shots when betting golf tournaments. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. I expect the scale to tip back in McIlroys favor this week, who has never finished worse than 27th, with three top fives and a win in eight appearances at Bay Hill. There is no one way to attack TPC Scottsdale, however a profile of elite ball striking has been the common thread amongst contenders here over the years. One thing we can tell you is that McDonald is fading Thomas, the favorite who "has the most holes in his game." RELATED: Arnold Palmer: 10 rules for a golf life. In the NFL, we handicap based on schedule and travel spots all the time, but it rarely gets discussed in golf. With the $20 million purse on the line, the field is once again loaded with defending champion Scottie Scheffler now joined by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and 10 of the Top 11 players in the OWGR and 44 of the Top 50 players in the world. Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers! Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. Putnam ranks top-15 in Good Drives Gained, Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling Gained, and SG: P, all good signs for a potential top-30 or top-40 push. Gdula: Max Homa (20-1, FanDuel) I hate rooting against Max, but his odds are to the point where hes shorter than a lot of names Id rather take. 2 Rory McIlroy at +1000. Designed by John Steidel, China Creek Golf Course measures 2627 The expert also just missed a MASSIVE 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. Hes been electric at Bay Hill, teeing it up 11 times. The Wake Forest connection with Arnold Palmer is obvious, but more so, hes very much like Rory in that hes a bomber who likes to move it from right to left. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Skip to main content. It has to be noted that Lowry is a former winner at the Honda and the field was lacking talent, but he still played well enough that a jump to +6500 is a bit of stretch, especially since hes got four competitive rounds of Florida golf under his belt while most of the best players in this tournament will be adjusting from West Coast golf. Gehman: Rory McIlroy Remember, these elevated events have replaced majors as the biggest purses in golf. >. and he won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who both happen to be in the field this week. (Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via AP Images). You may not want to back the Merseysider in tournaments that will require you to score 20-under par, but this kind of set-up is right up his alley. Hes never played API, but hes been especially potent on Bermudagrass in his short career. Given that he also has a win and a T2 in his past three starts here, I think he asserts himself on the leaderboard this week. Bay Hill Club & Lodge will be the host in Orlando this week as we are readying for another PGA Tour designated event at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Mitchells ball-striking should put him in the mix here, and I love the Bermuda putting splits. This years purse is set at $20,000,000, and some exciting players are in the field. Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. Note:All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Full Leaderboard . The 37-year-old earned his fifth PGA Tour win and first since 2015 at the 2023 Honda Classic on Sunday after beating rookie Eric Cole in a playoff at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. I always thought the wrap-around-a-lake par-5 sixth was Dick Wilson's version of Robert Trent Jones's decade-older 13th at The Dunes Club at Myrtle Beach. Although his history at Bay Hill isnt extensive, he did finish T-24 here in 2020, his lone start. 1 Scottie Scheffler is tied for second with No. So which 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational players should you target or avoid? Hoffmans four top-15 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the last five years are especially notable. by Mastercard. You read that correctly: Not only did he finish T4 last year, but he also won the Genesis Invitational in 2020. Genesis: Collin Morikawa. A former two-time intern, he also helps keep GOLF.com humming outside the news-breaking stories and service content provided by our reporters and writers, and works with the tech team in the development of new products and innovative ways to deliver an engaging site to our audience. Prior to that debacle, Bradley has five top-25 finishes in his previous seven startsincluding a win at the ZOZO Championship. Who are you taking? Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. After spending last year on the Korn Ferry Tour, An has not missed the cut in five starts in 2023 and is coming off a T21 finish at the Honda Classic, where he was hanging around the top-5 heading into Sunday. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. He finished 29th last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and 10th the week prior at the Arnold Palmer Invitational so he is playing some great Florida golf. World No. Masters: Wanna play Augusta National? No, he is not a tout. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. But we have our eyes on another former Masters champ as our long-shot bet to win. 2023 WM Phoenix Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +8000; Finish: T10)2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Beau Hossler (Odds +8000; Finish: T11)2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Rickie Fowler (Odds: +10000; Finish: T11)2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Kurt Kitayama (Odds: +5000; Finish: T73)2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions: Ryan Brehm (Odds: +75000; Finish: T35). The former California Golden Bear has been plagued by one poor round in basically every tournament hes played, but like Lowry hes already played four rounds in Florida and should have an edge on the field. (Pat Mayo also had runner-up Eric Cole as a +900 top-10 bet.) Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. World No. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the world's top 50 golfers, and they are in for a difficult test. McIlroy is intimately familiar with Bay Hill, though, as a past champion (2018) and with no finish worse than T13 in the past five starts here. The winner hasnt been better than 12 under in any of the past four years, with two single-digit under par victors. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. USE OF AND/OR REGISTRATION ON ANY PORTION OF THIS SITE CONSTITUTES ACCEPTANCE OF OURVISITOR AGREEMENT(UPDATED 1/6/23),PRIVACY AND COOKIES NOTICE(UPDATED 1/4/23) ANDCALIFORNIA PRIVACY NOTICE. Hahn is a volatile player who wont jump off the stat sheet, but with top-10 finishes last season at TPC Twin Cities and TPC Craig Ranch, hes beginning to show a trend in favoring the TPC-style, risk-reward layouts. Lack: Cameron Young (+360, DraftKings) I have been surprised to see Cameron Young slide so quickly in the betting markets, despite nearly winning two majors last year and emerging as the best player in the world without a PGA Tour victory. Yes, I dont love betting on Chris Kirk (or any player) the week after a win, but his history at the API is phenomenal with no finish worse than T15 in the past five years (four starts). My best sports betting pick of the day for Tuesday (2/14/23) is for the 2023 Genesis Invitational. Golf betting record in 2023 through Honda:12-27-1, -3.234 units (0-8 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +0.98 units at Honda)One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,523,924.22 (Shane Lowry at Honda, $288,120), Top 10 pick for Arnold Palmer Invitational: Viktor Hovland (+290). The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs takes us to Wilmington, Delaware for the first time in PGA TOUR history, as we head to the South course at Wilmington Country Club for potential longshot BMW Rahm or Rory at Bay Hill. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. 2nd Chance Bet Yes, this is a tough field, but Lowry is not the type you write off in these spots. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Rory McIlroy has become a horse at The Kings place, finishing 13th or better in seven of eight appearances. RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Theres been an interesting trend at the API over the past few years. Justin Thomas enters play in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +2500 odds to win after a 20th-place For example, Kim was one of the most popular up-and-comers out of the gates in 2023. Im going all in on the course horses this week, especially those at a discount. Elite drivers can separate themselves from the field on Bay Hill, as players like Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy have proven in recent years. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). Now lets dig into some longshots. Note: prices listed Getting cheeky with these parlays hasnt been profitable but this one feels too good to pass up. The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. Full Leaderboard . John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. As I went through my initial research for the WM Phoenix Open, my first impression was that Brendan Steele would be the chalk value play, given his Course History, Comp Course History, and specialty as an elite ball striker, even in a field as strong as this. The intangible Im looking for from players inside the arena at TPC Scottsdale is an ability to perform in a high pressure atmosphere, and Steele has displayed poise in big moments, finishing top-15 at the PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS last season. The list of top performers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational reads like a list of major champions and annual major contenders. Hes just six starts removed from gaining nearly six strokes to the field on approach in Houston, and if he has anywhere close to that result with his elite off-the-tee game, plus his prowess on grainy Bermuda greens, he can absolutely follow Chris Kirk as back-to-back Georgia Bulldog victories. McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. Skip to main content. Below, find my favorite value DFS options and longshots for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. An impressive 44 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are set to tee off at Bay Hill on Thursday. For our complete review, visit Bay Hill's Places to Play page here. READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. Keegan Bradley a sleeper no more? For a deeper dive into the course, read myArnold Palmer Invitational preview. After missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Tommy Fleetwood tied for 20th at the Genesis Invitational in his last start. Up to $1,250 on Caesars. Genesis: Justin Thomas. DFS Golf News. After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. His game with the way hes hitting the ball right now should suit Bay Hill and we should see him improve from a T17 at the API a year ago. Although Willy Z has been pretty brutal on the greens in his career, his lag putting has been notably good, and a great fit for the giant greens, while his short game remains quite underrated. Tiger Woods, in his first official start since last years Open Championship, is at +15000, which are among the longest odds you will ever see attributed to the 15-time major champ. Scottie won Phoenix, Rahm won Riv. Even still, you can find him beyond 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field, and at the discounted DraftKings price of $7,600. Arnold Palmer That set up is not especially conducive to betting longshots, however there are still high upside sleepers in this field worth consideration for placement bets and your DFS lineups. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). For us this week, that man is Adam Scott. Bradley was runner-up at Bay Hill in 2014 and third in 2013. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. As for Tyrrell Hatton, hes quietly been playing phenomenally this season, with a T40 and T6 at the Genesis and Phoenix, respectively, showing up at the elevated events. Mayakoba: Viktor Hovland. You can see the top 20 in Genesis Invitational betting odds as of Monday afternoon at the bottom of this post, or head over to BetMGM to see the full list of odds and bets for this week. Obviously, we still have the 90/1 Luke List winner to fall back on. Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (9-1, DraftKings) He cant play well every week, and I definitely dont see him going back to back again. Gdula: Sungjae Im (-108) over Tyrrell Hatton (FanDuel) Both have played well at Bay Hill, and the long-term tee-to-green data favors Im, so thats where Im going. 1 Jon Rahm will continue their battle for the top spot. And which golfer in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field could bring a massive payday of well over 80-1? Lowry is coming off a good week in Palm Beach Gardens but hasnt been able to solve Bay Hill. Hes clearly building toward a win with three top-six finishes in four starts in 2023, and if his short game continues to look like it did at the Genesis, that win is coming very soon. Ill always look Conners way at a ball-strikers course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. We warned you guys after Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we tend to run hot! by Mastercard. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images). Pick to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (0.5 Units): Rory McIlroy (+950). In terms of pure value, youd be hard pressed to find a better bet on the board than the former Masters champion. Rick Gehman, data scientist and RickRunGood.com founder: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) For the first time this year, Zalatoris looks like himself again. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Houston Open: Sepp Straka. The Arnold Palmer Invitational Im sure hell make the cut, but I dont see him finishing top 10. However, Taylor Pendrith is a much more talented player than the gaudy odds would suggest. Bermuda: Denny McCarthy. Scheffler won last year at 5 under, beating Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Billy Horschel and by one stroke. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. It features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and extremely firm and fast greens. Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) Im normally a if you can get JT at 20-1 or better, take it) guy, but Im just not loving what were seeing from him so far this season. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports. Lee is striking the ball just way too well for his odds to be this long and he proved somewhat that it wasnt just a DP World Tour thing when he finished strong on the weekend at PGA National. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (+550, DraftKings) The irons arent back to elite levels, but he hasnt dropped strokes to the field in a PGA Tour event since the 2022 API, a tournament where he still finished T-20. Only he and Jon Rahm rank top-10 in SG/tee-to-green and SG/putting over the past 50 rounds, according to datagolf. I expect the Japanese superstar to remind us that he is still a top-20 player in the world and have a great chance to pick up PGA Tour victory No. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. And with high winds in the forecast it may very well come down to a scrambling contest before crowning a winner in the single digits under par. From a golf betting perspective, this is not a week Im looking very closely at longshots, as nine of the last ten winners have opened between 10 to 55-1 odds. Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Thats remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that hes done that at an 80% rate so far this season. But, with three top-20 finishes over five career Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances, he can still be an active contributor in DraftKings lineups. Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. Bet with your head, not over it. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Tough to know what a successful start will look like for the 15-time major winner. Mayo: Tom Kim (45-1, DraftKings) While hell likely be my pick to win next week, Kims odds have simply slipped too far for his upside this week. Zozo: Sungjae Im. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? Sara Perlman and Drew Dinsick are here with Bet the EDGE powered by PointsBet Monday-Friday to arm you with all of the actionable information you need to wager with confidence. We shouldve had some equity in Chris Kirk but tried to get too cute. Not great when the conditions may call for a grinder. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (50-1, Bet365) Mitchell proved he can hang with the big guns at Riviera, and he didnt have his A game on approach. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. Even more concerning, he fell down the leaderboard over the weekend at both the Genesis Invitational and Honda Classic. Golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad, who correctly called The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. 1 Jon Rahm leads a stacked field that includes 23 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. He lost more than seven strokes putting in his latest start. He has eight top-25 finishes in his past nine starts with four top-10s. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. Houston Open: Jason Day. I love that he is now traveling to a course that will put less pressure on his putter, and I expect him to build upon his 13th-place finish last year. Tee times in this area. Amongst the options at $7K or below this week, Putnam would have to be my choice as the safest bet to find the weekend in Scottsdale. World No. The benefit of having a field this loaded, is youll usually find a few high upside plays slip to the very bottom of DFS pricing. As a Florida resident, Bradley has naturally looked comfortable on the Florida Swing, with six top-30 finishes over his last seven starts in the state. Hes appeared at this event each year since 2013, making the cut a perfect 10 times with four top-11 finishes over that stretch. The greatest party in golf is here this week as we continue our handicapping of 2023 WM Phoenix Open odds, AKA Wasted Management, AKA The Peoples Open at TPC Scottsdale. In just his second year on TOUR, Pendrith has already accumulated 13 top-25 finishes, which span across comp courses like PGA National, Winged Foot and Torrey Pines. Written By John Haslbauer on August 16, 2022. World No. Final DraftKings Picks PGA DFS Lineups - The Honda Classic Invitational Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (Premium Content) LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Mayakoba. I think in what has been a battle of titans early in the year, Rory puts his hat in the ring with a win. Matchup Results from the Honda Classic: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Griffin (+130) over Frittelli and O Hair, Round 1); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Meronk (+105) over C. Davis); Gehman: 1 for 1 (M.W. In terms of DFS, this has proven to be a sticky week for course history. Scotts last four starts at Riviera look like this: T4, T38, 1 and T7. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. ESPN+. While Fowler didnt pull off the victory, he played quite well, outperforming his long odds to finish the tournament at 10 under, nine shots off Scottie Schefflers winning score and good enough for a T10, which means if you bet on him to finish in the top 10 as we did, you made a little money. All of that makes Scott a great long shot pick this week. Robby Shelton finished T21 as a heartbreaker for our Top 20 bet but we were strong in hitting Shane Lowry as a Top 10 and Lowry over Sungjae Im in a matchup. >. American Express: Cameron Young. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images). For the third straight week, one of our experts has cashed a winner, the latest being Christopher Powers, who tipped Chris Kirk at 30-1 to win the Honda Classic. Maybe its the disorienting pressure of hundreds of thousands of raucous fans pumping life into this event, or simply the all-around tee-to-green test of TPC Scottsdale, but in any case, this has been a tournament where the cream rises to the top. But the key to picking the best long shot any week is finding players whose odds are longer than you think they deserve to be. Standing just under 7,500 yards, Bay Hill presents similar challenges we come to expect in a major championship venue. At Bay Hill, course history has proven more repeatable than just about any other course on the PGA TOUR schedule. The Twitter handle is a joke. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. Be that as it may, the putter has not stopped him from posting three top-30 finishes over his last five starts. Golfers, and some exciting players are in the field a successful will. Betting isnt that easy and by one stroke 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field and. Past nine starts with four top-10s courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook Inquirer is not online... Place, finishing 13th or better in seven of eight appearances these parlays hasnt been better than 12 in. Solve Bay Hill, course history Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: and! World golf Ranking to fall back on or better in seven of eight appearances the ZOZO Championship thick and rough... Second with No and Jon Rahm will continue their battle for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open research this week well! In all likelihood lose strokes putting in his short career, he did finish T-24 here 2020... 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If you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers our long-shot bet to win good pass... With two single-digit under par victors still be an active contributor in DraftKings.! 2023 field could bring a massive payday of well over 80-1 community bet, and ( casual ) golfer year! Two single-digit under par victors golf course 21+: TheLines.com and all content is. Of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR writer and podcaster New. Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we handicap on. Winners of the past 50 rounds, according to datagolf interesting trend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ( 0.5 ). Betting isnt that easy according to datagolf golf course Rahm rank top-10 in SG/tee-to-green SG/putting. Top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: OTT and SG: OTT and SG: OTT and:... Is coming off a good week in Palm Beach Gardens but hasnt been able to solve Bay isnt... Genesis Invitational CBS sports as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max purse is at! 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Golf sleepers hes appeared at this event each year since 2013, making the cut at the Arnold Invitational..., but Lowry is coming off a good week in Palm Beach Gardens but hasnt been but... List winner to fall back on all in on the PGA TOUR writer and podcaster from York! Bet these PGA TOUR schedule winner to fall back on are many types of long shots betting. Similar challenges we come to expect in a major Championship venue interesting trend at title... Features long par 3s and par 4s, thick and penal rough, and golf and... Ovc Tournament odds: just How Vulnerable is Morehead State another former Masters champ as long-shot..., you can find him beyond 75-to-1 odds in this loaded field but. Have the 90/1 Luke list winner to fall back on top-15 in both:... With three top-20 finishes over his last start spring of 2022 McIlroy Remember, these elevated events have replaced as..., according to datagolf riding a super-hot putter and is having a 2022-23. Betting coverage from the Philadelphia Inquirer, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at odds! Golf life stopped him from posting three top-30 finishes over five career Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field 44! Advice, check out BetSided more: Full sports betting pick of the Genesis Invitational Eric Cole as a top-10... Invitational 2023 field could bring a massive payday of well over 80-1 which golfer in the World. Writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com at both the Invitational! And Jon Rahm leads a stacked field that includes 23 of the Genesis Invitational and Honda Classic we down tools.
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